MPHBCAP: The change game resume?

I hope this time you could have a successful and completion sale off insurance business and unlock the cash and asset.

Today the investors reaction is not so interested with this old news. I'm in fact boring too as the Bank Negara always play as a stopper. Nevertheless, this time I think they already got the Pre-approval from Bank Negara, that's why they now only proceed with the admin job. I hope this assumption is true and the deal actually all done, now only complete the last phase of admin job.


Price reaction also look boring :)

May: The End Game for MPHBCAP?

Market value:  MYR 511 million ( or 0.5 billion)
Net Tangible Company value: MYR 1358 million (or 1.36 billion)
Gap between market given value versus company fair value: - MYR 847 million (or 0.8 billion)

Market given price: 0.7x

Company real value: 1.9x

Unrecognised value: - 1.2x 

  

MPHBCAP: I bet it will be this year 2020 super stat stock

This is super undervalued stock, if I based on very conservative center fair value computation, it should be market at 2.00 and if I based on really full value it should price at price at least 3.50.

I don't show how is it derived as no body will interest until that day really happen.

So, just talk about technical price, it now back to resistance price 1.07 to be decided where to go. I almost monitor the price action every market day and I see the invisible smart investor still doing collection.

MPHBCAP: No update!

ZZZzzzzz....quiet trading, smart investor still collecting quietly.

I've to wait the leader sheep finish the collecting, then only the M day will come.

MPI Generali Insurans Berhad (MPHBCAP valued company in term of financial but also stopper for MPHBCAP stock price)

MPHBCAP: Smart investor at 1.05

Do you aware the smart investor is there collecting at 1.05?
This is for sure is the long term fight, only the patience investor will be rewarded.

Market cap only MYR 0.7 bill versus the intrinsic value MYR 2 billion is really a big gap match.
The only reason of this gap I can explain is due to the Financial Company status which all the cash and asset being locked by the Insurance business. So, it can only can be explosive once the insurance business has better arrangement.

MPHBCAP: Update 15.Nov.19

Weekly TA data:
R1: 1.14
R2: 1.16
S1: 1.05
S2: 0.985

1.10 Psychology Resistance

This is my long term fight!

MPHBCAP: Free Aim The Bull Explosive Chart and Explanation!

What you can see? How to interpret it? This is Free, I give you free, no need money.
If you've money, just buy and this is at your own risk!

Blue dot line EMA 1.08, this is pivotal price point. For MPHBCAP meaning is going to create a bull run if the bear can be transformed or evolved into Bull (condition running above 1.08)

Red line is the big picture where is the price position.If it can cross over the top line, then we can see the BREAKOUT! If it cannot move above the top line, still follow the bottom line, mean the downtrend will still continue. The Triangle Box what you see now is the downtrend and it still cannot confirm whether it is able to break the wall or shift the box to upward.

The green line is the short term trend line. This is the signal of Buy or Sell. In this case is the Buy.

B team is working hard for the collection and they already accidentally release the Buy signal. Therefore it attract some sensitive traders (maybe only 1% people know) notice, and they're already rushed in to the ship, that's why you able to see the green line in the uptrend.

S team is still there whereby they need cash for their personal agenda, they will still selling and B team will still collecting until the day come.

The day mean the Aim The Bull Massive Shooting day. Whereby everyone is rushing to buy at whatever of the price until they satisfied they're already get involved.

This is all the price recording for the action from the investors and traders.

So, what is the reason behind this action? I called it New Value Creation!
What is the value creating such action? I guessed this is most probability due to the MPHBCAP insurance business agenda and from value investor point of view is such the company value (big land...) missed match by the stock market price. This is Hypothesis Inefficient risk in the market (Boss don't like). Also, this is an opportunity for you for this inefficiency pricing.
You can read what I have commented before at this blog.

MPHBCAP: Just rebound again from 1.04 low

No much time left (option end May 2020) for MPHBCAP to think how to deal with the insurance business MPI Generali Insurans Bhd. 2 possible situations could be happened in next few months.

Situation:

1. Italian Generali Group sell the 49% to MPHBCAP.

2. MPHBCAP sell the remaining 21% share to Generali Group.


Situation 2 unlikely happen as Bank Negara will block it again with no reason given again.

So, situation 1 will likely happen.

But how MPHBCAP able to fund the purchase as the company cash flow will stuck with this huge re-purchase share.


So, MPHBCAP need to find a strategic way e.g. find a partner to eat the 49% shares, or sell the 49% to another Insurance company.


No matter how, MPHBCAP will not able to "telan" back the 49%, boss need to find a way! Boss will not "telan" it as he don't like Insurance business, that is what I think about him.

What will Generali do with its stake in MPHB’s insurance subsidiary MPI?
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/what-will-generali-do-its-stake-mphbs-insurance-subsidiary-mpi

Rebound Chart:

Again, I will still continue buy MPHBCAP as I think at price 1.12 now is still a price mismatch to the real value of the company.

MPHBCAP: why you must have it in your portfolio?

Because you going to get the insurance business free!!!
This is not fake, this is not a joke, this is ABSOLUTELY TRUE, FAIR AND CORRECT!
Especially at current price 1.10!
Watch the 2013 video which recommended by Maybank Investment! Although is 2013 recommendation, as it today I still think it is still valid and reasonable fair value for MPHBCAP!

MPHBCAP: Price is getting cheaper when the profit getting bigger

Weekly Chart:

Collecting, keep collecting as the stock is super cheap!
Look the the weekly chart, is slowly moving upward but someone is stopping it.
I'm not sure why, but I think someone want to collect cheap and try to stop the price moving up.
The insurance business issue need to settle next year end of May as the put option is due soon!

2019 sure is the bigger profit year and 2020 sure a GREAT YEAR for MPHBCAP!!!

Quarterly PNL

Annual PNL (Q2 YTD)

MPHBCAP: Historical Low! Mismatched in asset and market value!!!

What is cooking inside to make it so low (historical low)?

I guessed privatisation is the only the answer or the company going to make a tsunami loss in financial performance! Privatisation is most likely...i guessed! 

Quarterly financial performance:

MPHBCAP 2018 Financial Performance

Q4 make almost break-even, annually 12 million profit. Both revenue and profit dropped parallel . 

Nevertheless, cash is increasing (from 679 mil to 725 mil). This cash is from operating business, not from borrowing as I don't see any debt increased.

Weekly chart show the price back to weakness after last week strong bottom out. The direction of the price still in positive to move up, but in weak mode. That's mean it can come back to 1.00 again. So, let's see any movement for next week. I hope I can conclude the bottom or downward trend is ending.

MPHBCAP: Good news coming...what is that?

It just bottom out this week and I think 1.01 low will be this year history. The price will start climb up to welcome the good news hit it.

What is the good news?

1. Sold of Insurance get approval and reduce stake and give special dividend to shareholders
2. Rapid land sell with massive land sell profit as the land price there now rocket high due to the project of RAPID already in production running mode.
3. Take private as current price is deeply undervalued, BOSS is really not happy (if I'm the boss).

I guessed only lah...just bla bla bla...don't take it serious. I wrote it down just for future when I old time, I can read back for fun. Nothing serious here.

Below is MPHBCAP weekly chart, can see the so called technical resistance 1 1.19, TA resistance 2 1.21. For value investors, TA is a tool for understanding the price position, also can be served as a tool to assist decision to sell or buy.

MPHBCAP 1.01 new low 18.Feb.19

No one can make any profit with 1.01, and the seller intend to cut loss or reduce position due to extremely afraid of further sell down.
But, this is a trap to attract sell, you will know one day, You're underestimate intelligent of Surin.

MPHBCAP: 15.Feb.19 another sell down

I don't know who selling it, also cannot find any big gun selling their stake.
Possible small fish cannot hold the stock, as many of stocks already start moving up, but MPHBCAP still like a salt fish.

If you're not a long term value buyer, for sure you will logout, no point to hold a stock still trending downward. But if you're value investor, for sure you will keep buying (if you still got bullet to do so).
I'll buy more once my salary out, will reserve part of it to buy more.

Mphbcap:Angry bird

Terrible undervalued!!!

Value vs Price in stock market

This is very important principal in value investing. I used Mphbcap as example to illustrate. Value for Mphbcap is 1.80, above 1.80 and below 1.80 is self explanation. Investor now explain Mphbcap only worth 1.25, so they will sell it without consider the core value 1.80. So, some investors like me know that this is good chance to collect (if you financially capable), as we know the price one day will surely back to it's core value 1.80. We will only sell it when it deviate much of core value, let's said 2.5.

I only can collect little by little as I have run out of investment cash.

Mphbcap

Best time to buy or buy more.

Mphbcap: The downtrend move ending soon!

So, time to profit is near now. A good news soon to be released.

Mwe and mphbcap: same boss same move soon?

First MWE, then Mphbcap then Magnum as he maybe realiase market is unfairly price the company...so better for him to take it private.
If he offer mphbcap 1.70 i will be totally disappointed.