Amverton: Carey Island deep port

It take year to study of the need...

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/08/30/study-on-suitability-of-carey-island-as-a-port/

Cycle of stock market price

Where am I now? Likely at capitulation stage :( for mphbcap, a&m, bpplas and nearly to despondency stage also. Meaning the downtrend is almost complete soon. Most of the weak one already wipe out.

My portfolio update:

A&M from gain to loss, anyway I have already locked in some major profit. The rest is the purchase at higher price.

Bpplas in loss.

Mphbcap loss look like reaching the "peak" loss already.

Add in cabnet for some reasons.

I hope 3 of them can recover soon and I will not sell in loss unless the company facing financial structural damage.

I`m value investor, I have patience and I will be rewarded, and this is just matter of time. Law of attraction :)

A&M: rebuild the uptrend line

Look like this is not over yet...deep port carey island still on track...

A&M: game over for trend 1

Yes, it's game over for trend 1. So sad.
So, I`ve to wait for trend 2.
I still have 50% holding which is at price 1.00. As I`ve missed the top price, and now I've no better stock to buy or stock which worth to switch, therefore I will keep. Who know it sudden u-turn.

A&M: pressing down

Last 2 trading days A&M continue dip further. I believed someone press down to clear the weaker. To rise further, you need to step back further. Let see how much that someone want to press down it. When someone feel the press down further is difficult, then someone will press up.

Lowest purchase price 0.80, highest 1.70.

A&M and Rakuten Tp 2.20

A&M REALTY BHD 

By Rakuten Trade Research

Buy (initiated)

Target price: RM2.20

RAKUTEN Trade Research has initiated coverage on A&M Realty Bhd with a “buy” call and a target price of RM2.20, underpinned by the property developer’s positive and exciting transformation ahead.

The research house indicated that A&M’s trump card moving forward is its 1,938-acre Pulau Carey landbank with a gross development value (GDV) of RM6.8bil.

“A&M’s Pulau Carey landbank is expected to be further boosted by potential spillover impacts from developments of an integrated maritime city on Pulau Carey spearheaded by Sime Darby Bhd, MMC Corp Bhd, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd with total infrastructure investments of up to RM200bil,” said Rakuten Trade Research in a note.

The research house has likened A&M as the best proxy play on the potential port development at Pulau Carey, riding on Sime’s and MMC’s lead.

Earlier this year, it was reported that the Port Klang Authority has proposed to build a giant port on Pulau Carey. The island, measuring 13,000ha, is about 25 times the size of Singapore’s Sentosa Island.

Currently, A&M’s ongoing 125-acre Amerton Cove Golf and Island Resort on Pulau Carey has been in operation since 2013. The resort and its golf course remain a popular destination with more than 32,000 golfers monthly.

“Amerton Cove’s integrated township green concept tourism theme development would provide superior earnings visibility of up to 2025 for A&M. The property developer’s on-going property projects include Amverton Links in Klang and Amverton Hills in Sungai Buloh which are 70% completed and will be ready for launching in the second half of 2017 with GDV of RM205.1mil,” it said.

A&M has a massive GDV in the pipeline worth more than RM10.7bil, spanning over 1,410 acres of low cost land.

Rakuten Trade Research said that the company’s healthy balance sheet with zero borrowings, makes A&M an attractive value proposition. To note, A&M has a net cash of RM64.1mil.

The Main Market-listed A&M’s other divisions namely the plantation and manufacturing segments continue to be profitable, contributing more than 10% of the property developer’s net profit.

 

A&M Realty - Carey That Gem Now!

When I talk about A&M is when the price around 0.80 to 1.00.

Now, Investment Bank start talking about it when price now 1.7X.

Anyway, is still not too late for you to enter at current price as I foresee the great value release in future. Think about you're a property investor, you want to buy a house, you can choose to buy a house or you can choose to buy a stock with business selling house :)

Below is the Kenanga talk with TP 3.00 :). Can you believe it? I'm supporting this.

Source  :  KENANGA
Stock  :  A&M       Price Target  :  3.00      |      Price Call  :  BUY
        Last Price  :  1.72      |      Upside/Downside  :   +1.28 (74.42%) 
We initiate coverage on A&M with an OUTPERFORM call and TP of RM3.00 based on valuation of 57% discount to its SOP of RM7.00. We like the company for its healthy margins, light balance sheet, strong new sales, earnings growth, and its future catalyst, i.e. Pulau Carey that is set to ride on the potential port development project undertaken by SIME and MMC. We estimate FY17-18E sales growth of 195%-29% while earnings to grow by 33%-30%. Remaining total GDV of RM17.0b with long term visibility of 15-20 years.

A&M’s land banks are mostly located in the Klang Valley (93%) while the remaining is in Melaka and Seremban. In the long term, Pulau Carey would be the main growth driver being the 72% contributor of total remaining GDV. While in the immediate term, its development would be supported by its Klang and Sg. Buloh projects which make up 19% of its total remaining GDV. It also enjoys high project gross margins of 40%-50% thanks to its relatively low land-cost to GDV ratio that ranges between 0.3%-8.8%.

Beneficiary of Pulau Carey play. Pulau Carey is located approximately 70km away from KL City Centre accessible via South Klang Valley Expressway (SKVE) which is approximately an hour’s drive away. The main owner of the Pulau Carey landbank is SIME with c.11,000ha which are mostly plantation landbanks at the moment. Meanwhile, A&M has 1,901.4ac land in Pulau Carey, which currently includes 125.0ac golf-course called Amverton Cove Golf & Island Resort, which has been in operation since year 2013 and is a public golf course. Over the last 2 years, A&M’s Pulau Carey land has been rezoned for residential and commercial purposes from agriculture land status, meaning that their land is immediately developable.

Ramping-up more launches. Going forward, A&M is keen to launch its other projects currently in the pipeline, i.e. Amverton Links, Klang and Amverton Hills, Sg. Buloh. In FY17-18E, the group intends to roll out RM238.6m-RM290.1m worth of launches of which 41%-30% are landed/affordable apartments. This is positive given that the demand for landed residential projects in Klang Valley area remains fairly resilient compared to high-rises.

Light balance sheet allows for a semi build-then-sell model. Currently, the group has a net cash position of RM64.1m with zero borrowings implying that it has very little land holding costs. This allows the group to construct ahead of time RM164.5m (representing completion progress of 68%) out of the RM238.6m worth of planned launches over FY17E which indicates their confidence in the ability to sell their projects. On a positive note, the recognition of sales from these projects would have an immediate and significant impact to its earnings.

Estimates FY17-18E earnings growth of 33%-30% to RM26.7m-RM34.6m. We are expecting its earnings growth to be backed by our estimated sales for FY17-18E of RM111.9m and RM144.1m from its planned launches of RM238.6m and RM290.1m respectively. We believe that our sales estimates are highly achievable given that we have been conservative with our take up rate assumptions of c.50% for its landed residential projects in Sg. Buloh and Klang that are already at an 80% completion stage on plan launch in 2H17.

Initiating coverage with an OUTPERFORM call and TP of RM3.00 based on 57% SoP discount to its SoP of RM7.00 (partial GDV and partial landbank basis). Our applied property RNAV discount of 60% is a tad higher than HUAYANG’s applied discount of 57%. For the small-mid-cap developers within our coverage, the average SOP/RNAV discount applied is at 55% (range of 25%-82%), whereby Greater Klang Valley-based developers discount range is lower at 25%-57% while Johor based developers are higher at 73%-82%. While our TP implies a high FY17-18E PER of 41.0x- 31.6x vs. other small mid cap developers average of 9.1x–7.6x, we also note that its GDV/mkt cap ratio is also high at 26.6x vs. small-mid cap peer’s average of 12.4x. At this juncture, we think that A&M PER may not be the best basis of comparison to peers given its superior earnings growth of 33%- 30% in FY17-18E, coupled with its huge landbank size and exceptionally long visibility of 20-years. Our SOP is also conservative as 36% of its total landbank is value on land rather than project value basis

A&M: Look strong now

Look like I have chance to keep my 2nd and 3rd batch to ride higher price. :)

A&M: plan B

Today initiate plan B to sell the first batch around 1.6x. I have prepared 3 batches to sell. Next batch sell will trigger at 1.55.

A&M: flush out weaker or ending of uptrend?

Need more time to confirm. But I believed it can go further as new giant deep sea port will surely bring A&M to higher potential gain.

M'sian, Indian Firms To Develop Port & Maritime City Projects On Carey Island

From D. Arul Rajoo

NEW DELHI, April 3 (Bernama) -- Malaysian and Indian companies will jointly develop port and maritime city projects worth about US$32 billion (US$1=RM4.42)on Carey Island in Klang, Selangor.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said the Indian companies were interested in Carey Island due to its strategic geographical location.

"It's a sheer coincidence that the Kabali film was shot on Carey Island, but off course, the Indian group is interested because of its strategic location," he said at the Roundtable Meeting with Captains of Industry here today.

Najib told his audience that he had a chance to meet Kabali superstar Rajinikanth in Chennai during his visit there on Friday, and the selfie with him has since become viral both in Malaysia and India.

Malaysia's MMC Port Holdings Sdn Bhd and Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Limited of India are expected to develop the Carey Island Port Project worth US$9.39 billion.

The development of an integrated maritime city to the proposed Carey Island Port will see a joint venture between MMC Port Holdings and Sime Darby Property Bhd with Adani.

The integrated maritime city is worth US$22.78 billion for a 30-year period.

Najib also told the captains of industry that there are many exciting developments taking place in Malaysia, citing the recent US$7 billion investment by Saudi Arabia's Aramco and the Digital Free Trade Zone, the first in the world which was launched by him and Jack Ma of Alibaba last month.

On trade between the two countries, Najib said they hoped to achieve the US$15 billion target within three years, after the initial target in 2015 was not met due to global economic slowdown.

Najib also said the various economic transformation programmes taking place in Malaysia were bearing fruit, with the creation of 1.8 million jobs, reduction in poverty and doubling of gross national income.

The premier, who is also the Finance Minister, said Malaysia's economy was able to cushion the global economic slowdown due to the transformation, adding that the reliance on oil and gas had dropped to 14 per cent from 41 per cent in 2010.

"With our highly diversified economy, strong manufacturing foundation, developed infrastructure and connectivity, proactive government policies and sound legal system, we believe that there is enormous potential for further cooperation between India and Malaysia, and that our country can be your gateway for ASEAN and beyond," he added.

Najib urged the Indian businesses to take advantage of the wealth of opportunities offered by Malaysia, adding that the country had the highest percentage of Indian diaspora outside India.

"The market is open for your business and ideas. With joint efforts from both our countries, Malaysia-India economic trade and cooperation will be taken to new heights," he said.

-- BERNAMA

A&M update

Purchase average 1.00
Current 1.54

Next theme play: Property stock

After long time of sleeping, the property business which is always key economy and market driver is now triggering. The property stocks going to be the theme player for this year as IWCITY as a role of leader sheep . My preference still A&M and HIL.

How far both can go?

Both is trying hard to create a history high.

A&M is driven by Carey Island new deep sea port project proposal by government.

HIL is driven by acquisition of 2 companies to explore into more property business and revenue pipeline.

Aim the bull believed the history new high is coming out soon.

A&M and HIL: Ready to massive aim the bull shooting?

I got the feeling the massive bull shooting is coming soon.

HIL going full force in property

Cash rich HIL now confirmed propose to buy more land with cash MYR 71 mil from Ng family to reduce big reliance on small margin manufacturing business. It will able to generate one time revaluation gain and also immediate to own the approved housing projects.
Unfortunately this good news like ignore by market. But i believed soon the market will close the gap.

A&M: the journey of uptrend?

New giant deep port effect at carey island which A&M own a big land there...

A&M: finally...

Breakout

Success on track, A&M under perform

Both sharing high % share of portfolio. Lucky Success rise up able to boost the 2016 portfolio performance which able to cover the under perform A&M.