Brexit confirmed, so what next?

Welcome to Brexit: Here’s what happens next

- Global markets are moving wildly, and currencies are making big moves, but the actual political process will be much, much slower.

- Assuming Cameron respects the democratic process, he will invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which begins the legal process for leaving the EU

- Then a series of negotiations for how to disentangle the UK from EU (could take up to 2 years or more)

- The process of leaving the EU would be irreversible.

- In the more immediate term, markets are going to react in a big way. The Brexit has no historic precedent. No precedent means volatility in markets, probably on a global scale.

- There is currently a global flight to safer assets – gold futures, classic safe-haven asset

- Equities and futures across the globe took a dive.

Source: CNBC

Opinion / View💡
- There is no certainty of how big the impact will be, meanwhile equities, bonds and commodities already taking a hit

- For selling: Currently KLCI is down 22 pts @ 1617, still above the strong support of 1600 level. Would advise to consider cut loss when stocks are testing a lower support level.

- For buying opportunity: Advice to stay on the side line at the moment as most Malaysian stocks are not at a huge discount currently.

- If you would like to take a long / short position: there are some call and put warrants made available by local banks for the KLCI Index. Although the risk is higher / more volatile

What happens if Brexit wins?

EU referendum: What happens if Brexit wins?

The referendum is the biggest decision Brits have faced in a generation. The last direct vote on the country's ties with Europe was in 1975.

1.   Prime Minister David Cameron would face huge pressure to resign. He is campaigning for Britain to stay in the bloc, but his Conservative party (and government) is bitterly divided over the issue. Fellow Conservative and former London mayor Boris Johnson leads the Brexit campaign and may be a candidate to succeed Cameron.

2.   The U.K. government, the International Monetary Fund, the Bank of England, Fed Reserve Chief Janet Yellen, President Obama and other world leaders have all warned that leaving the EU would hurt the U.K. economy -- the fifth biggest in the world. They're worried about the impact on trade. By leaving, Britain would lose its automatic right to trade freely with the rest of the EU, which currently buys about 45% of British exports. The EU is an even bigger market for British services, such as banking and insurance.

3.   Investment and employment may also suffer. Many U.S. companies are heavily invested in Britainand use it as a gateway to the rest of Europe. So they may scale back in the U.K.

4.   U.K. officials have said that up to 820,000 jobs could be lost if Britain leaves the EU. Several global companies have hinted they might shift jobs out of the U.K. The latest warning came fromJPMorgan (JPM) last week.

5.   One of the core principles of the EU is the free movement of people, which gives citizens of any member state the right to live and work in any of the 28 countries in the union. Those in favor of Brexit say leaving the bloc would allow the U.K. to decide which migrants to let in. But an exit from the EU would raise questions about the status of roughly 3 million people from other EU states who currently live in the U.K. Campaigners say they would be allowed to stay, but future EU migrants would likely need a visa.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/09/news/economy/eu-referendum-brexit-what-would-happen/

BREMAIN VS BREXIT

⚠Markets reacting in favor of a BREXIT ?⚠

Futures imply Dow open down 550 points as rolling Brexit results frighten investor. - CNBC

Futures reacting in favor of BREXIT

KLCI -16.09pts @ 1623.93
FKLI - 22.5pts @ 1621.00

Singapore -54.79pts @ 2739.06

Nikkei 225 -495.95pts @ 15,742.4

Hang Seng -762.94pts @ 20,107

China -44.29pts @ 2847.96

Dow futures -533pts @ 17,382

DAX futures -794pts @ 9609

FTSE 100 futures -530pts @ 5834

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Brexit Referendum Update

So far 61.78% of voters result release

48.8% to remain in Europe

51.2% to leave Europe

Scenario of Bremain vs Brexit

Wizx:
Maybank Summary of Brexit
[Christopher Wong, senior FX analyst]

Our base case scenario is for Bremain

If Bremain:
*GBP and Oil prices will see a rebound

*GBP/AxJ currencies should see a breather rally +2-6%

*Safe haven currencies like CHF, JPY could unwind

If Brexit (basically all hell breaks loose)
*GBP could test multi year lows of 1.3503 (Jan 2009) and beyond 1.33 levels

*Safe haven proxies like CHF, JPY, US$ and gold will surge

*Oil prices would come under pressure...-15%

*GBP/AxJ currencies could decline by 10% on avg

Timeline of Events:
19 June BBC Interview with PM Cameron

21 June BBC Live Telecast from Wembley

22 June Final TV debate

23 June Voting to close at 10PM UK time

24 June First results will be known 1AM GMT / 8 AM SG/KL Time

24 June National declaration by 6-7AM GMT / 1-2 PM SG/KL Time