Wednesday, 20 September 2017

Mfcb

[转贴] 美佳第一MFCB – Don Sahong的内在价值 - RH Research

MFCB创办于1966年,在1970年上市于大马交易所,是一家多元化的企业。其业务可分为3个主要部门:经营 发电厂、石灰以及产业发展。

寮国Don Sahong水力发电项目的历史可以追溯至2006年,当时寮国政府与MFCB签署谅解备忘录,以对此项目进行可行性研究。Don Sahong发电厂是寮国政府透过输送电力出口,以获得更多收入来源的计划之一。

在2008年,多方签订项目开发协议,MFCB获得进入最后阶段谈判的批准,并与寮国政府和潜在电力买家商讨最后的细节。随后在2013年,寮国政府向湄公河 Mekong River委员会汇报关于兴建水力发电厂的计划。

经过9年的筹备以及研究,Don Sahong水力发电厂的建设正式在2015年开始动工。作为这项目的主要发展商,MFCB的80%持有子公司Don Sahong Power获得寮国政府颁发USD500m合约,负责打造、经营和移交这项目,同时也获得25年的经营专利权。集团把Don Sahong水力发电厂的EPC合约颁给中国的Sinohydro Corp,合约总值USD320m。此外,购电协议书也在2015年完成签署,未来的电力将出售于寮国国企,为期25年。

若一切顺利,Don Sahong水力发电厂可在2019年杪完成,并于2020年初开始投入运作。这260MW水力发电厂项目在施工期间预计将耗资USD417m。在去年4月,MFCB 推出附加股附上免费凭单计划,一共筹集RM243.7m。当中的RM150m用于寮国水力发电厂的建设工程融资。由于这项目大部分成本涉及美金,MFCB的股东可以自由选择以马币或美金的方式认购,认购价为每股RM1.59和USD0.38。

根据MFCB执行董事Mr. Goh,Don Sahong水力发电项目的投资回报期为5年,低于传统水力发电项目平均10年的投资回报期。这是个25年的经营专利权项目,内部收益率 (IRR) 为17%。

从技术层面,Don Sahong水力发电厂的建设非常简单,主要因为这是沿着河流生产电力,而没有涉及任何水坝。因此,发展成本处于集团可负担的范围内。值得一提,管理层曾经表示这项目是全世界最好的发电项目。

一旦Don Sahong水力发电厂投入运作,预计每年可生产约2,000GWh电力。根据早前签署的USD0.0615/ kWh,这电厂每年可带来约USD120m的收入。由于这项目的经营成本估计仅占收入的2-3%,而每年的经营专利费(Royalty Fees) 为5%,Don Sahong水力发电厂的税前盈利预计为USD110m。再以25%税率以及项目80%股权计算,MFCB可从中获得USD66m或者RM280m的税后盈利,相等于每股73仙的每股盈利。值得一提,这水力发电项目获得政府给予的5年免税期。

若以保守8-10倍的PE推算,单单一个Don Sahong发电厂的每股潜在价值处于RM5.88 – 7.35之间。显然的,MFCB目前RM3.70的股价依然属于低估。

截至FY17Q2,这项目的建设进度为30.9%,比预期提早三个月。管理层预计今年杪的建设进度可达到45%。由于寮国的雨季在5月开始,一些现场施工活动如水下挖掘将放缓,甚至是停止。这雨季通常在10月才结束。因此,每年的Q2以及Q3建设收入通常比Q1以及Q4低。

整体来说,这水力发电厂预计可在2019年杪正式投入运作,届时每年可带来庞大的持续性收入。

纯属分享!

Tuesday, 12 September 2017

Completely switching some HIL to Mphbcap

This stock confirmed in downtrend, but I more like to collect when it in the weakness side rather than uptrend side. So, my risk is further go down to 1.20, but I don't care. The fair value for this stock is at least 2.00, that's why i switched. If I am unlucky it go down further, then I keep and I can keep for at least 1 year.

I am value investing.

Monday, 11 September 2017

Hiaptek is building up uptrend line

I have with Hiaptek many years, i still holding some for the wish it will recover in future. Now the wish is came true and now enjoying the profit compared with last year a big loss in portfolio. Once it resume the new plant of the furnace blast, the potential  upside is huge as the iron ore price is uptrend now.

Sunday, 27 August 2017

Mphbcap ≪≫ HIL switching

I have start switching MPHBCap, i guess the bottom is almost there. Of course it still can dip further as it's price still in the downtrend.

Wednesday, 2 August 2017

Mphbcap: worst not yet over but is almost there

That big boy is very ambitious to pull down it to 1.20 to collect. After the collection complete that big boy will let it run up again. Now is testing your patience! Value investor at this time is a buy and never a sell strategy.

Monday, 31 July 2017

Mphbcap: 1.50 is not real, 1.4x price is coming

The big boy still want to press further. If you're not planning to hold for long term, pls stay away.

Friday, 28 July 2017

Mphbcap: worst is over?

The big one already start heavy collection yesterday. Let see whether it can dip further below 1.50. Who can "tahan" till the end will be the winner. I didn't sell any and didn't buy any as no more fund to do that despite feel "delicious" at this price level. My plan is to switch HIL to Mphbcap when it reach 1.40 which is super deeply undervalued and I surely cannot "tahan" not to eat at this price.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ AimTheBullReading~~~~~~~~~~~~~